Why Are Market Experts Lowering Their Bullish Bitcoin Forecasts?

Market experts are scaling back their bullish Bitcoin (BTC) forecasts for both the short and long term. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has cut her 2030 Bitcoin price target by $300,000.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has made a $65,000 reduction in his year-end projection, now predicting a price below Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH).

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ARK Invest Adjusts Bitcoin Outlook For 2030

In a recent interview, ARK Invest’s CEO revised her bullish Bitcoin forecast from $1.5 million to $1.2 million by 2030. Wood said the growth of stablecoins has prompted a reassessment of Bitcoin’s future valuation.

“Given what’s happening to stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would, I think we could take maybe $300,000 off that bullish case, just for stablecoins,” she told CNBC.

The executive explained that the rapid scaling of the fiat-pegged digital assets has exceeded expectations. She added that stablecoins are “usurping part of the role” Bitcoin was initially supposed to fulfill.

They are functioning as cash equivalents (digital dollars), while Bitcoin remains a global monetary system and a new asset class. Despite this, Wood affirmed that Bitcoin is still “digital gold” and could capture at least half of the gold market’s value.

Her view aligns with VanEck’s recent outlook. The firm projects that Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving.

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Galaxy Digital Cuts 2025 Target Below Bitcoin’s All-Time High

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Firmwide Research, has also adjusted his year-end Bitcoin outlook downward. He lowered his target from $185,000 to $120,000, placing it beneath Bitcoin’s all-time high of over $126,000 reached in early October.

“At the time of writing, crypto is experiencing a major, multi-week selloff. Bitcoin is trading below $100,000 for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse. As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000,” Thorn posted.

The research note outlined several main challenges for Bitcoin’s price.

• Whale Activity: Bitcoin holders have been moving coins into ETFs and institutional portfolios, showing market maturity but have created pressure.
• Leverage Wipeout: The October 10 liquidation event has significantly impacted market liquidity and trader confidence.
• Capital Rotation:  Investor attention and capital have increasingly flowed to AI, gold, and top tech stocks rather than Bitcoin.
• Stablecoin Growth: The rapid growth of stablecoins has drawn investment toward payment and fintech infrastructure.
• Retail Fatigue: Retail traders haven’t returned in full since 2021, and those who did were more focused on speculative meme tokens than on Bitcoin HODLing.
• Policy Inaction: Despite discussions of a potential US Bitcoin reserve, no official steps have been taken, dampening institutional excitement.
• Structural Maturity: Bitcoin’s market is entering a more stable, institution-driven phase with slower price growth and lower volatility.

Together, these factors are putting pressure on BTC prices, even as the long-term outlook remains positive.

“Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate. If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower,” the note read.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin could climb to around $170,000 within the next 6–12 months. The analysts argue that the market’s deleveraging phase is largely over.

This clear divergence between traditional institutions and crypto-native analysts highlights the mixed outlook for Bitcoin’s next phase — whether it continues maturing steadily or regains its high-growth momentum.