Evaluating the Fan Token Index After Its First Month
The first half of July was strong for crypto, with $BTC reaching a new ATH above $123k. But shortly after the Fan Token Index was first introduced in the July 27, 2025 article as a way to gain broad exposure to the SportFi narrative, momentum stalled. Despite another attempt at new highs in August, $BTC retraced by more than 10%. Given the high correlation and greater volatility of most crypto assets relative to $BTC, this period served as a meaningful stress test for the Fan Token Index. What follows is a review of its performance since launch.
Source: TradingView
The Fan Token Index was structured with a 50% allocation to $CHZ, serving as the core proxy for the ecosystem. The remaining 50% was equally divided among selected football club Fan Tokens that met defined criteria, such as: clubs with standout recent seasons, major trophies, or participation in upcoming main events like the 2026 World Cup or the Champions League. These include $ARG, $PSG, $BAR, $NAP, $GAL, and $JUV.
As anticipated, the index displayed significant volatility, fluctuating between 95 and 114 before closing just below breakeven at 99.37 (-0.63%) as of September 4.
Source: TradingView (price data), author’s analysis (portfolio construction). From July 27 to September 4, 2025.
In the previous article, we noted that some might argue Fan Tokens cannot compete with the explosive gains of other tokens, like memecoins. As an example, we highlighted $USELESS, which had reached a $377 million market cap within just a few months of launch. Yet, as expected, that rally proved unsustainable: $USELESS has since fallen more than 55% as attention faded.
This illustrates the core difference, memecoins often behave like lottery tickets, reliant on fleeting hype, while Fan Tokens are tied to real-world events and narratives. Even if their short-term performance is less extreme, their drivers are easier to anticipate and evaluate over time.
Source: Dexscreener
While the future is uncertain, it is reasonable to ask whether attention toward this theme will continue to build in the months ahead, and if so, whether token prices could trade significantly higher. As Stanley Druckenmiller’s first mentor put it: “Never, ever invest in the present… You have to visualize the situation 18 months from now, and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be, not where it is today.”
With that perspective in mind, we can assess the index’s performance not in isolation, but relative to benchmarks. Compared with $BTC and the individual Fan Tokens that compose it, the index held up well. As shown below, the index (black line) outperformed $BTC (orange line) over the entire period, finishing with a 5.11% relative gain.
Source: TradingView (price data), author’s analysis (portfolio construction). As of September 4, 2025.
Against its own constituents, it outperformed 2 of the 7 tokens while maintaining lower volatility at 10.9%. Only two tokens ended the period in negative territory: $CHZ (-8%) and $GALFT (-10.2%). The largest drag came from $CHZ, which at a 50% weight had the greatest impact on results.
Source: TradingView (price data), author’s analysis (portfolio construction). As of September 4, 2025.
Unlike club Fan Tokens, $CHZ is tied to the overall ecosystem rather than to a specific team, which makes it less responsive to match results or football-related developments and more influenced by general market conditions. Nonetheless, it remains a deliberate inclusion in the index, serving as a more stable anchor while still providing exposure to the broader SportFi ecosystem.
That said, investors with a higher risk appetite could choose to exclude $CHZ and focus solely on the club Fan Tokens. Over the same period, this version of the index would have performed considerably better (closing at +6.84%, or 12.54% above $BTC) with annualized volatility of 13.9%, only modestly higher than the $CHZ-inclusive version.
Source: TradingView (price data), author’s analysis (portfolio construction). As of September 4, 2025.
The key advantage of this approach is flexibility: it offers exposure to the SportFi narrative without needing to pick a single token in advance, while allowing allocations to evolve as conditions change both on and off the pitch.
In line with Druckenmiller’s mentor’s advice to focus on where markets may be heading rather than on the present, it is useful to revisit why each token was included in the index. This allows us to reassess over time whether those drivers remain valid and make adjustments if needed.
In the July article, we highlighted the 2026 World Cup as one of the main catalysts for the SportFi narrative. Over the past 30 days, interest in the tournament has already started to build significantly.
Source: Google Trends – Search term: World Cup, last 30 days as of September 5, 2025.
Within that trend, Argentina stands out as the most engaged region, which is one of the key reasons $ARG was included in the index.
Source: Google Trends – Search term: World Cup, last 30 days as of September 5, 2025
It won’t be a coincidence if since the end of July, $ARG has been the best performer, increasing more than 20%.
Source: TradingView.
Its appeal lies in a unique combination of factors: Argentina are the last World Cup champions, prediction markets rank them among the top five contenders for 2026, and the token is effectively tied to one of the most passionate football fan bases.
At current odds of roughly 10%, $ARG benefits from an element of uncertainty and surprise, conditions that often drive price action more than outcomes that are already widely expected.
Source: Polymarket
Moving on to national football clubs, we selected tokens from teams positioned to compete for their domestic leagues or the Champions League.
In Serie A, Napoli and Juventus have both started strongly, sitting first and second with equal points.
Source: Diretta.it
More importantly, prediction markets currently rank them among the top three contenders for the league title, with Napoli at 38% and Juventus at 15%. While these odds are relatively high, they fall short of certainty, leaving room for shifts in expectations and potential price reactions of $NAP and $JUV as the season unfolds. In addition, both clubs are competing in the Champions League, where their odds of winning are lower than some rivals, but the potential for unexpected outcomes remains.
Source: Polymarket
Regarding Barcelona, PSG, and Galatasaray, their domestic leagues are less relevant for our purposes. Each already holds strong winning odds (Galatasaray, for example, has claimed three consecutive titles and is aiming for a fourth) so there is limited “surprise effect” left to capture. Instead, their inclusion in the index is driven by exposure to the Champions League, a major competition that consistently attracts global attention and could significantly increase demand for their Fan Tokens.
Within this group, $BAR and $PSG stand out as top contenders, with prediction markets giving them 16% and 12% chances, respectively, of winning the tournament.
Source: Polymarket
By contrast, $GAL represents the riskiest component of the index, a view reinforced by its -10.2% performance over the past month. While another domestic league win is almost guaranteed, its chances of lifting the Champions League trophy are below 1%.
Still, this very uncertainty creates optionality: any unexpected progress in the tournament could trigger a sharp repricing, particularly given Turkey’s status as one of the most active markets for Fan Tokens, with the largest number of clubs represented.
Source: RocketFan
Looking ahead, it will be important to re-evaluate $GAL, and the other constituents, in the coming months to determine whether adjustments to the index are needed.
The first month of the Fan Token Index has shown both the opportunities and challenges of capturing the SportFi narrative. While overall performance remained around breakeven, the index still managed to outperform $BTC. The results also confirm the importance of allocation choices, as $CHZ acted as a stabilizer but weighed on returns, whereas the club Fan Tokens offered stronger upside potential.
Looking ahead, the real strength of this framework lies in its adaptability. By tracking narratives tied to real-world events such as the World Cup and the Champions League, the index allows investors to stay exposed to themes with clear catalysts while retaining flexibility to adjust constituents as conditions evolve.
FanTokens | Link
FIFA World Cup | Link
Stanley Druckenmiller’s Lost Tree Club Lecture. Substack | Link
A Fan Token Index for World Cup 2026 and Beyond. BeInCrypto | Link
